The Oscars: My Predictions

I know this is what all of you have been waiting for but i have to warn you right now, after reading this post, the actual Oscars ceremony tomorrow night will be anticlimactic. I will be predicting the big 8 awards. That is the four acting categories, the two writing categories, directing and best picture. I will start with the writing and end with best picture. To give you some background, this is my third year doing this. The first year I missed two, Supporting Actor and Director. Last year I missed two, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. So you see, I have a problem with the supporting actor category. I hope I can do as well this year. Let lets get this started.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

My prediction: No Country For Old Men
This may be my downfall category this year. I have not seen The Diving Bell and the Butterfly but I have heard a lot about it and it may sneak in for the win and the other three aren't slouches either. They all have good solid stories.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

My prediction: Juno
I have a bad feeling that this might be the only major award for this wonderful movie.

Best Achievement in Directing
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Julian Schnabel
Juno - Jason Reitman
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson

My prediction: The Coen brothers for No Country For Old Men
Now we are getting into easier predictions. Anderson might have an outside shot but I think it will be the Coens year.

And now the big five...

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

My prediction: Cate Blanchett
Rudy Dee's performance was great, but it was very, very short. Same goes for Amy Ryan who pretty much disappeared half way through. Saoirse Ronan had a pivotal role but she also disappeared half way through as her character grew up. Which leaves Swinton and Blanchett. Swinton will be Blanchett's main competition but I think Blanchett will get the nod.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

My prediction: Javier Bardem
The only category with an easier prediction is best actor. Of course, with my track record, I might have just doomed Mr. Bardem's chances. The other's had good performances but Bardem will be just too much for them.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

My prediction: Julie Christie
Ugh...this one was hard for me. Her is my thought process. 1) Laura Linney is a great actress but it is pretty much a consensus that she will come up short. 2) Cate Blanchett will win best Supporting Actress. 3) Ellen Page is too young. I think the voters will think that she has plenty of time to get her Oscar. By the way, Page is my favorite and I really really really hope she wins. 4) This leaves Christie and Marion Cotillard. Here is where Academy voting comes into focus. It has been pointed out a lot the the Academy voters tend to be older (hence the non vote for Page) so they will go for Christie, who they know and understand. 5) Christie plays a character afflicted with a disease, Alzheimer's, and this tend to sway the vote sometimes. 6) Cotillard does have an outside chance, ala Roberto Benigni, but she is still "an outsider".

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

My prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis
If there was ever a stone cold lock in the Oscars it will be this pick. If anybody else wins it will probably be considered the biggest upset in Oscar history. The Academy loves bold performances and they love fixing a perceived wrong (Day-Lewis' loss for Gangs Of New York).

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

My prediction: No Country For Old Men
Atonement was beautifully shot but it will come up short. Michael Clayton is a solid movie but it is too main stream to win (besides the fact that the other four are better). Juno, as much as I love it and wish it would win, has a major problem, it is a comedy and they really tend to under perform in the Oscars, especially for Best Picture (Go ahead and prove me wrong, Academy! I dare you! Do you think it worked? Probably not.) There Will Be Milkshake, I mean Blood has produced the big pop phrase of the year* but was slow and tedious through the middle parts. *By the way the pop phrase of the year is "I drink your milkshake. I drink it up!" Day-Lewis used it to explain oil drainage, and no, I don't know why it has become so popular.

Well, there you have it, now there is no reason to waste your time watching the OScars, go out to the movies or something, the theaters will probably be empty.